, Columnist
Trump Doomsayers Miss a Money-Making Opportunity
Why it's hard to get rich off of predicting the worst.
Bet it all on the black swan.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
When Donald Trump was elected president, some prominent economists predicted disaster for the stock market. It did seem headed that way at first, but then the market turned up. The S&P 500 rose 9.5 percent last year, and so far in 2017 has done fine. Over the last year, measures of volatility were largely normal.
Given that reality, are Trump doomsayers obliged either to stick with that prediction and short the market or to tone down their rhetoric? There is a disconnect between speech and behavior, unless, unbeknownst to me, America’s intellectual and media mandarins have been busy liquidating their long positions and buying puts over the past two months.